BillWX Local Weather Center for NJ!
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Scroll to very bottom for any special/extended forecasts that may be issued by BillWX!
(Updated January 2012)
Here Are Some Local Observations From Around N.J.
From Weather Underground:
Kean University, Union, NJ - Union Co.
Trenton, NJ (Ewing)
Cedar Brook Manor, Somerset, Somerset Co.
Toms River, NJ - Ocean Co.
Cape May, NJ - Cape May Co.
High Point, NJ - Sussex Co.
OTHER FORECASTS FOR THE NJ REGION:
Extended Winter Forecast for New Jersey (and immediate bordering parts of PA, NY and the MD/DE area).
Winter 2011-2012 - Issued Sun. 11/17/11 at 7 pm EST.
Please note that my extended/seasonal forecasts should NOT be taken as THE forecast! Just another tool to try to see what it looks like will happen and then compare to what actually happened. I take a number of meteorological parameters and put them into my forecasts - one of which is experience. Beware of "armchair meteorologists" who just rehash what someone else wrote or pick a forecast model and run with it no matter what. That's not forecasting, that's just copying what another person or a computer says. With that in mind, here I go!
It's mid-November and we've had an active year so far. Who can forget the October snowstorm just a few weeks ago!? We've all heard the infamous "so is this what the whole winter is going to be like?" questions. My answer is no. In fact, a BIG NO. Is it going to be a repeat of the winter of 2010-2011? My answer right now is NO. Another BIG NO. I will not bore you with analysis of maps, Atlantic Oscillations, woolley caterpillars, historic events, bla bla bla. I'll leave that to the "weather weenies" out there who feel the need to substantiate everything they forecast - so when it busts, they can say "BUT the bla bla bla model or bla bla oscillation looked that way" or worse "this was a highly unusual change in the pattern.." Huh? Is that the way to forecast? Ok, off my soapbox. It just bothers me that people actually get paid sometimes for this drivel. (Even some "famous" meteorologists, too!)
So on with my forecast. We've been fairly warm as far as normals go this year. Precipitation is above normal so far. I'm seeing December to be more wet than white. Sorry folks, there will be some cold air, but not enough for a big snowstorm. The atmosphere is doing its usual gradual seasonal shift to colder, but there is A LOT of warm/hot air still around that will keep the cold locked up to the north and south polar regions. Speaking of which, if you're planning on travel/vacations in northern Canada or Alaska, do it now. It looks to be VERY cold up there and I'm seeing patterns suggest a winter to remember in Alaska. Could be trouble up there - especially toward the end of December into much of January. It's supposed to be cold and snowy, but I think even native Alaskans will be worried.
But back to New Jersey! With the previously mentioned cold being locked up north and all the warm air still around, I would even forecast some December/January severe weather events, which would be 'unusual'. The cold air will make a few attempts to move south and give us some frigid days/nights, but arctic air is also dry, so arctic high pressure will bring the cold, but evaporate moisture - so not much snow. As far as the El Nino/La Nina patterns, the last few have been erratic and caused some significant weather problems the last few cycles. I won't get into climate change, because that makes some people gripe. But there is a lot more warm air in the atmosphere over the past 10-15 years and that leads to more energy for storms (not just hurricanes). Nature's balancing act of cold and warm becomes more dramatic when you add more "fuel". So I am forecasting an active December, again with more rain than snow for our region.
January will finally see some of that arctic/polar air slipping into our region, but it will be mostly dry. I would expect overall, January will be a bit warmer than "usual" - especially the first half of the month. All that cold air to the north will begin to spread south and begin to invade the U.S. and northeast more frequently toward the end of the month. But we may wind up with one of the warmest January's on record. As for snowfall, I would even go as far as saying "almost no snow". Sure, there will be some - but definitely not a repeat of last winter. (Sorry kids, doesn't look like weeks of snow days!) For travel, these cold surges will be fighting a fairly strong subtropical jet, so we may have some unusual severe weather/heavy rains in the south - and even some significant snow in the south and west, driven by intense and fast developing storm systems. (But even these systems that develop rapidly will "warm up" to give the mid-Atlantic and northeast more rain than snow.)
February looks interesting. Then again February ALWAYS is interesting! The cold air finally starts doing its thing, but our hemisphere is starting to point more toward the sun again! So the warm air battles start up more frequently. February 2012 may be the "snowiest" month of the season, but I still don't see a major "storm pattern" developing. I'm thinking February will see more "cold blasts", but still nothing that lasts more than a few days. I do think we'll have some white on the ground - that may last more than a day or two. If someone were to ask me "is there going to be a "big snow storm?", I would say it's more likely in February than January. Could we get into a little "storm pattern" for a week or two? Sure can. Again, I would say February is more likely than January the way I see it now.
Now remember, this is more than 2 months from this writing. So I could be WAY off. Heck, even late January may be totally different. But that's as I see it right now.
Do I even get into March? Sure, why not. I'm thinking early March will be much like the end of February. I'm not going to nail down a day-by-day forecast at all - but if what I'm seeing holds, we could start seeing an early spring with a wintry surprise happening. That cold air to the north will make a good push in late winter and maybe enough moisture will be present from the Gulf/Atlantic to give us a little snow storm after some warm days. Could it be another "Storm of the Century"? Maybe. Don't hold me to that though! As for spring 2012, I think it'll be early and the the groundhog may know it! Hahaha.
Now, let's see what nature throws at us in reality!
-BillWX, Meteorologist
Nov. 17, 2011..The Night/Morning Of The Leonid Meteor Shower!
2011 BillWXWinter 2011-2012 - Issued Sun. 11/17/11 at 7 pm EST.
Please note that my extended/seasonal forecasts should NOT be taken as THE forecast! Just another tool to try to see what it looks like will happen and then compare to what actually happened. I take a number of meteorological parameters and put them into my forecasts - one of which is experience. Beware of "armchair meteorologists" who just rehash what someone else wrote or pick a forecast model and run with it no matter what. That's not forecasting, that's just copying what another person or a computer says. With that in mind, here I go!
It's mid-November and we've had an active year so far. Who can forget the October snowstorm just a few weeks ago!? We've all heard the infamous "so is this what the whole winter is going to be like?" questions. My answer is no. In fact, a BIG NO. Is it going to be a repeat of the winter of 2010-2011? My answer right now is NO. Another BIG NO. I will not bore you with analysis of maps, Atlantic Oscillations, woolley caterpillars, historic events, bla bla bla. I'll leave that to the "weather weenies" out there who feel the need to substantiate everything they forecast - so when it busts, they can say "BUT the bla bla bla model or bla bla oscillation looked that way" or worse "this was a highly unusual change in the pattern.." Huh? Is that the way to forecast? Ok, off my soapbox. It just bothers me that people actually get paid sometimes for this drivel. (Even some "famous" meteorologists, too!)
So on with my forecast. We've been fairly warm as far as normals go this year. Precipitation is above normal so far. I'm seeing December to be more wet than white. Sorry folks, there will be some cold air, but not enough for a big snowstorm. The atmosphere is doing its usual gradual seasonal shift to colder, but there is A LOT of warm/hot air still around that will keep the cold locked up to the north and south polar regions. Speaking of which, if you're planning on travel/vacations in northern Canada or Alaska, do it now. It looks to be VERY cold up there and I'm seeing patterns suggest a winter to remember in Alaska. Could be trouble up there - especially toward the end of December into much of January. It's supposed to be cold and snowy, but I think even native Alaskans will be worried.
But back to New Jersey! With the previously mentioned cold being locked up north and all the warm air still around, I would even forecast some December/January severe weather events, which would be 'unusual'. The cold air will make a few attempts to move south and give us some frigid days/nights, but arctic air is also dry, so arctic high pressure will bring the cold, but evaporate moisture - so not much snow. As far as the El Nino/La Nina patterns, the last few have been erratic and caused some significant weather problems the last few cycles. I won't get into climate change, because that makes some people gripe. But there is a lot more warm air in the atmosphere over the past 10-15 years and that leads to more energy for storms (not just hurricanes). Nature's balancing act of cold and warm becomes more dramatic when you add more "fuel". So I am forecasting an active December, again with more rain than snow for our region.
January will finally see some of that arctic/polar air slipping into our region, but it will be mostly dry. I would expect overall, January will be a bit warmer than "usual" - especially the first half of the month. All that cold air to the north will begin to spread south and begin to invade the U.S. and northeast more frequently toward the end of the month. But we may wind up with one of the warmest January's on record. As for snowfall, I would even go as far as saying "almost no snow". Sure, there will be some - but definitely not a repeat of last winter. (Sorry kids, doesn't look like weeks of snow days!) For travel, these cold surges will be fighting a fairly strong subtropical jet, so we may have some unusual severe weather/heavy rains in the south - and even some significant snow in the south and west, driven by intense and fast developing storm systems. (But even these systems that develop rapidly will "warm up" to give the mid-Atlantic and northeast more rain than snow.)
February looks interesting. Then again February ALWAYS is interesting! The cold air finally starts doing its thing, but our hemisphere is starting to point more toward the sun again! So the warm air battles start up more frequently. February 2012 may be the "snowiest" month of the season, but I still don't see a major "storm pattern" developing. I'm thinking February will see more "cold blasts", but still nothing that lasts more than a few days. I do think we'll have some white on the ground - that may last more than a day or two. If someone were to ask me "is there going to be a "big snow storm?", I would say it's more likely in February than January. Could we get into a little "storm pattern" for a week or two? Sure can. Again, I would say February is more likely than January the way I see it now.
Now remember, this is more than 2 months from this writing. So I could be WAY off. Heck, even late January may be totally different. But that's as I see it right now.
Do I even get into March? Sure, why not. I'm thinking early March will be much like the end of February. I'm not going to nail down a day-by-day forecast at all - but if what I'm seeing holds, we could start seeing an early spring with a wintry surprise happening. That cold air to the north will make a good push in late winter and maybe enough moisture will be present from the Gulf/Atlantic to give us a little snow storm after some warm days. Could it be another "Storm of the Century"? Maybe. Don't hold me to that though! As for spring 2012, I think it'll be early and the the groundhog may know it! Hahaha.
Now, let's see what nature throws at us in reality!
-BillWX, Meteorologist
Nov. 17, 2011..The Night/Morning Of The Leonid Meteor Shower!